The Giants are going to win because a camel said so

January 29th, 2008 | Posted by PostmanR

If I were a Giants fan I’d most likely be grasping for any sign from above, any reason to believe my team is going to upset and dethrone the Patriots in the Super Bowl.  This isn’t to say the Giants have no shot: they certainly do. But this is to say when you’re running up against perhaps the greatest NFL team of all-time, any help you can get goes a long way.

That’s what Giants fans have to be uber-pumped that Princess the camel has them taking out New England. Wait, what?

Her picks are nothing to spit at: Princess, who once belonged to heiress Doris Duke, went 11-6 during the regular season and is 8-out-of-10 in the playoffs this year. Her prowess is equal to that of some of the most famous forecasters.

“I can’t explain it, but her predictions, more often than not, are right on the money,” said John Bergmann, general manager of Popcorn Park Zoo, the southern New Jersey facility for elderly, abused or unwanted animals where Princess has lived since 2004. “I’m hoping she’s right this time because I’m a Giants fan.”

Princess’ prognostication skills flow from her love of graham crackers. Bergmann will choose a game at random during the regular season, place a cracker in each hand, and use a permanent marker to scrawl the name of a competing team on each hand.

Whichever hand Princess nibbles from is her “pick” for that week.

Her regular season mark of 11-6 comes out to a .647 winning percentage. (Since she never quite got the hang of points spreads, Princess picks the games straight-up, just choosing the winner.)

This may be a bit ridiculous … you know, a camel named Princess picking the winner of NFL games at a high rate of success. But, I can’t think of a better example to illustrate how randomness and blind luck really plays an enormous part in sports picks. Just because a team should win doesn’t mean they will. Just because a team should lose doesn’t mean they will. As much as you might try to account for defensive schemes and audibles and punt coverage, stuff can change real quick once the ball is in play.

This is also the reason why, on any given night, some 70-year-old lady in Vegas can pull the handle on a slot machine and become a millionaire on her first trip to the city, while the guy playing the same machine for 30 years is down money.

It all makes no sense.